Weather markets · Live

What are the odds it rains tomorrow?

Weather markets translated into plain probabilities. Rain, temperature, hurricanes, climate — updated live.

Global temperature map

Tomorrow's high, as a probability distribution.

Polymarket & Kalshi
Natural events

Bigger picture. Rarer events.

Hurricanes · Earthquakes · Tornadoes

Seismic activity

Earthquake threshold markets.

Tornadoes

Season-long count markets.
Climate dashboard

Slow-moving markets. Long-horizon odds.

2026 · 2030 · 2050
2026
This year
2030
End of decade
2050
Mid-century
Wild cards

Rare events. Shareable numbers.

Precipitation

Rain & rainfall

NYC · 7-day rain probability

Daily “Will it rain?” markets from Kalshi

Kalshi

July rainfall

Kalshi

“Above 1 inch this month” — 10 cities

24h change shown at rightKalshi · 10 cities
Prediction market data · Not weather forecasts. Not financial advice.bainluck.com/weather